Role of Scenarios in Strategic Forecasting

In: Business and Management

Submitted By vaiela32
Words 3159
Pages 13
The role of scenarios in strategic foresight”
Article Summary
In the context of the global financial crisis and the turbulence that this has brought to the world economy and therefore to organisations, the article “The role of scenarios in strategic foresight” by Gill Ringland published in the journal Technological Forecasting & Social change volume 77 (9) aims to persuade the reader on the need for strategic foresight over the next decade and what role scenarios can play within strategy foresight activities in organisations (Ringland, 2010). The author predicts that organisations in the west will experience a period of great change and that they are mostly ill-prepared to deal with the rate or the enormity of this change. Ringland believes that conventional business planning will need to change and suggests the need to develop a systematic review of organisational practices that will lead to strategic foresight. This will ensure that organisations are in a position to cope and survive changes in their external environment.
Ringland begins by pointing out that the current position of the world economy shows that business and government have a significant debt burden that will take years to pay back especially in the west. In an environment of unemployment, reduced consumer spending and debt repayment, wealthy nations will recover slower than developing nations. There is also a shift in international competitiveness due to changes in labour skills and costs as well as technological advances. Added to this are pressures of environmental change, international law and the ability to access raw materials. Businesses in the west will need to weather a power rebalance from emerging businesses in developing economies by developing strategic foresight that is constantly updated.
Strategic foresight for businesses comprises of a high-quality forward view that can…...

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